Pretenders or Contenders?

Three intriguing teams to watch this summer

The WNBA season is officially here! Clap it up in the comments! There are a lot of different storylines between players, teams, coaches, and front offices to tackle, and I hope to cover all of them for you all this summer. If you missed it, I’ve already dropped my first set of power rankings coming into the season, and several questions will need to be answered by players and teams this year. There are teams that we know will be good, there are teams that we know will be sorry, and then there are teams that we just don’t know about yet. There are about 6-8 teams that I believe could be good or could be bad. I do believe this will be one of the better seasons in W history, with several teams being around the same record, and on any night, any of the top 10 teams can beat one another. Here are the three teams that fall into this category that I will be watching closely this summer.

Atlanta Dream

Last Season: 15-25, 8th seed

Following a 2024 campaign where the Dream snuck into the playoffs with a late regular season push, winning their final three regular season contests before falling to the champs in the first round, Atlanta comes into 2025 with high expectations. With a returning core of Rhyne Howard, Alisha Gray, and Jordin Canada, the starting backcourt is sure to be one of the best in the league. This offseason, the Dream bought in Karl Smesko, the former FGCU leader, known for his high-octane offense, to lead the group, and with the likes of Howard and Gray in the backcourt, the duo is poised for another big year. In addition to Smesko, Atlanta added a pair of veterans to bolster the frontcourt in Bri Jones and Brittney Griner in free agency and a pair of rookies in Te-Hina Paopao (a sharpshooter) and Taylor Thierry (a versatile wing who can stretch the floor).

For Atlanta to be successful this year, health will be big, and having a punch off the bench will be crucial. We know what Howard and Gray can do as the leaders of this group, but can BG and Bri Jones hold down the paint and dominate opponents down low? BG appeared in 30 games last year with the Mercury, and Bri Jones played in all 40 games for the Sun, following a season-ending injury in 2023. The health and productivity of the Griner and Jones are imperative to the Dream’s success. If one or both go down with an injury, I’m not sold on the frontcourt of the Dream. With Griner standing at 6’9 and Jones at 6’3, the Dream have just two players standing at 6’2, which includes guard Rhyne Howard. The lack of size as the roster is currently constructed is a concern, and relying on Nia Coffey and Naz Hillmon down low for extended minutes won’t be the best solution. If Griner or Jones goes down, I could very well see Smesko opting to go small, allowing Canada to be more of a scoring threat and spacing the floor out for shooters. Either way, I’m excited to see Smesko in his first year at the helm in Atlanta and how this squad looks under his leadership.

Prediction: In my preseason power rankings, I had Atlanta in the 8th spot, but they could easily fall anywhere between 4-10 in the standings. I can easily see the Dream having anywhere between 19-22 wins this season, if healthy.

Atlanta will open the season against the Washington Mystics, Indiana Fever (back-to-back games), Dallas Wings, and Connecticut Sun.

Dallas Wings

Last Season: 9-31, 11th seed

The city of Dallas is UP right now! First, the Luka-AD trade, which shocked the world, to Paige Bueckers being selected first overall, to the Mavericks winning the NBA Draft Lottery. If you’re a fan of Dallas sports or just live in the Dallas area, it’s an exciting time for you! Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let's talk about the Wings. After a disappointing 2024 campaign, the Dallas Wings will look very different. This offseason, the team lost Satou Sabally, Natasha Howard, Jacy Sheldon, and Kalani Brown.

Sabally and Howard led the Wings frontcourt the past two seasons together, with Howard showing that she’s still a great third option for a club while Sabally’s time in Dallas was plagued by injuries. Although Sabally only played in 15 games a year ago, she still averaged 17 points per game. Howard, who appeared in 27 games, also averaged 17 points per game. With two of their top three scorers from a season ago, who, along with Arike Ogunbowale, accounted for ⅔ of the team’s scoring, where does the rest of the offense come from this year for Dallas?

For years, Dallas’ struggle has been finding the right core of players to surround Ogunbowale with; in turn, the squad has not lived up to the hype. Since 2019, Dallas has missed the playoffs in three of those years, been eliminated in the first round two of those years, and reached the semifinals in 2023. The roster hasn’t lacked talent, but the recurring theme has been finding a running mate in the backcourt to alleviate pressure off of Ogunbowale’s game.

The Wings hope to have solved that problem with the addition of Bueckers. That will be a dynamic that I’m interested to see play out this season: can Bueckers find success playing alongside Arike? How will the Wings’ offense look? Will Paige be more of a PG, or will Arike still have the ball in her hands to make something happen? We all know Arike is one of the best scorers in the W, but will her numbers take a hit for the benefit of the team, or will she continue to get hers and it not result in having the team's success that Dallas is capable of tapping into? In addition to Bueckers, the Wings brought in vets DiJonai Carrington, Ty Harris, and Myisha Hines-Allen to help bolster the roster, as well as promising forward NaLyssa Smith, and rookie Aziaha James, who should contribute off the bench. Until we see someone step up on the offensive side of the ball alongside Ogunbowale, the Wings will have to find a way to get stops to give themselves a chance to win ballgames. Outside of Ogunbowale, who else is going to step up and put the ball in the basket? Bueckers can do it, but after that, who else? Unless it’s done by committee, this Wings team could struggle to put up points this season.

With a new head coach, bringing in Chris Koclanes from the University of Southern California (formerly with the LA Sparks and Connecticut Sun), the leadership in Dallas under Curt Miller will look to steer this ship in the right direction. Will Koclanes be able to lead this group to the postseason, or will the Wings miss the playoffs?

Prediction: In my preseason power rankings, I had Dallas missing the playoffs again, finishing in the 10th spot, but similar to the Dream, the Wings can finish anywhere between 6-10. With Paige and Arike in the backcourt, I could see the Wings winning about 15 games this year, a step in the right direction, but as you can see, they will still need some more scoring to truly compete and solidify a playoff spot.

The Dallas Wings will start the season facing the Minnesota Lynx, Seattle Storm, the Lynx again, the Atlanta Dream, and the Connecticut Sun.

Phoenix Mercury

Last Season: 19-21, 7th seed

The theme this offseason for the Phoenix Mercury was out with the old and in with the new. WNBA legend Diana Taurasi announced her retirement from the league, Brittney Griner signed with the Atlanta Dream, Natasha Cloud was traded to the New York Liberty, Sophie Cunningham is in Indiana, and Rebecca Allen is on the Chicago Sky. That’s FIVE key players from last year's squad who are no longer on the team. If you haven’t picked up on it yet, the Phoenix Mercury will look VERY different this year.

You may be wondering, well, who’s on the team? Kahleah Copper will be returning, and at her side will be a player who is always in the mix for MVP, Alyssa Thomas, and a pair of players we mentioned just a moment ago from Dallas in Satou Sabally and Kalani Brown. The Big 3 of AT, Kah, and Satou will have a very heavy load to carry in Phoenix. Having a point forward in AT will help to run the offense, but what will the guard production from this team look like? Sami Whitcomb is an option with her ability to stretch the floor from deep. Sevgi Uzun played in all 40 games with Dallas a year ago, but what role will she play this year? Outside of the Big 3, where will the rest of the offensive production come from for the Mercury? There are a lot of question marks surrounding this Mercury squad, who will look to continue to compete for a playoff spot and the ultimate goal of winning a championship. Kah is going to be Kah, she’s from Philly, tough, and a dog. She will go out and compete hard on both ends every night. Sabally will need to stay healthy. As I mentioned earlier, her career has been plagued with injuries outside of the 2023 season, where she played in 38 games. For Phoenix to get back to the playoffs, Sabally will need to be on the court.

One name I would throw out there for the Mercury and really any team in need of scoring, but the former guard with the Chicago Sky, Chennedy Carter. If I'm the Mercury, I’m on the phone today to see if Carter would like to join the squad. After being out of the league in 2023, Carter shined last year with Chicago averaging 17 PPG and being a bright spot for the Sky, alongside vets like Kah and AT, I think Carter could shine in the guard role to alleviate pressure off of AT handling the ball and provide an additional scoring option for the Mercury. I will be interested to see if the Mercury makes any additional moves as the season rolls along.

Prediction: In my preseason power rankings, I had the Mercury finishing in 7th, right ahead of Atlanta. Despite the lack of guard depth, I think the Big 3, if healthy, can lead Phoenix back to the playoffs. It will be tough and gritty games, but I think the Mercury can get in that 19-22 win range, similar to Atlanta.

Phoenix will start the season against the Seattle Storm, the LA Sparks, the Storm again, the Washington Mystics, and the Chicago Sky.

Let me know in the comments which teams are on the bubble of being contenders or that could be pretenders, and who you’re excited to watch this season. Stay tuned for more W content this summer! Let’s get it!